Moderna Raises 2026 Revenue Outlook, but COVID Sales Still Lead

What changed in Moderna's 2026 revenue forecast?

On November 6, 2026, Moderna raised its expected 2026 revenue growth to 15%–25%, compared with its previous outlook of up to 10%; third-quarter revenue increased 29% year over year to $1.313 billion.

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What drove Moderna's revenue growth?

Higher international COVID-19 vaccine sales, supported by deliveries under long-term government partnerships, were the primary driver; net product sales increased to $1.273 billion from $973 million, while other revenue was $40 million versus $43 million a year earlier. Moderna expects approximately half of its 2026 revenue to come from international markets.

What does the higher forecast mean for MRNA shareholders?

The upgrade improves near-term revenue visibility, and Moderna returned to GAAP profitability with $162 million in third-quarter net income, but its $1.963 billion net loss for the first nine months of 2026 shows that one profitable quarter does not establish a sustained earnings recovery.

Has Moderna diversified beyond COVID-19 vaccine sales?

Not yet in terms of the reported revenue growth: COVID-19 vaccine demand remains the primary driver, while its approved mFLUSIVA flu vaccine has a limited U.S. launch for the 2026–2027 season and its cancer vaccine candidate, intismeran autogene, developed with Merck, remains subject to regulatory approval before a potential 2027 commercial launch.

What should investors watch next?

Moderna's next scheduled investor milestone is its Analyst Day on November 12, 2026; investors will be watching whether international vaccine deliveries sustain the revised revenue outlook and whether flu and oncology products begin broadening the company's revenue base.